How Scientists Cracked the Climate Change Case(NYT)

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The biggest crime scene on the planet is the planet. We know the earth is warming, but who or what is causing it? Image Credit Credit ...

The biggest crime scene on the planet is the planet. We know the earth is warming, but who or what is causing it?


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CreditCreditEmilia Miękisz
The latest report from the world’s climate scientists has made clear the size of the challenge if the world is to stay below the global warming limit hoped for in the Paris climate agreement. Unfortunately, with current trends we are likely to cross this threshold within the next two decades because we are already two-thirds of the way there.
But how do we know what is driving these climate trends? It comes down to the same kind of detective work that typifies a crime scene investigation, only here we are dealing with a case that encompasses the whole world. Let me give you my view, which does not necessarily represent the position of NASA or the federal government.
For the past 100 years we have documented good, independently confirmed observations of change at the surface of the planet, and for the past 40 years satellites and comprehensive measuring efforts have provided a much fuller view of changes throughout the earth system. These observations show clearly that among other things, the surface of the planet has warmed, the upper atmosphere has cooled, the oceans are gaining an enormous amount of heat, sea level is rising, Arctic ice has greatly receded and glaciers around the world are in retreat.
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Scientists have no shortage of suspects for the causes of climate change. Over the 4.5-billion-year history of the planet, almost anything that might have happened has happened, sometimes many times over. The sun has brightened and sometimes dimmed, massive volcanic eruptions have occurred, the planet’s orbit has wobbled, the continents have moved, the land surface has been remade, the composition of the atmosphere and its ability to trap and reflect solar and terrestrial radiation has altered, ocean circulations have sputtered and stopped, and we have been struck, at least once, by a mass-extinction-inducing asteroid.

Each of these events left a unique fingerprint of change on the climate system, with impacts reaching from the upper atmosphere 30 miles high to the deep ocean four miles down, from the tropics to the poles, and in the sediments laid down in the geological record. To track down the culprit of any one specific climate change involves piecing together the contemporaneous fingerprints and tracking them back to the plausible causes.
For changes since the beginning of the 20th century we don’t need to worry about asteroids or moving continents, but we know there have been natural changes in earth’s orbit, variations in the sun’s brightness and volcanic activity. There are some new suspects too. Human activity has deforested, replanted and irrigated large areas of land, added pollution to the skies, depleted the ozone layer and, yes, changed the concentrations of key greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide levels are up 40 percent, methane has more than doubled, and we’ve introduced some purely synthetic compounds that are many times more potent than either of those but are fortunately present in lower, but growing, concentrations.
Like forensic detectives, climate scientists have developed a new array of tools in recent decades designed to skillfully calculate what the fingerprints of these changes look like, and more important, how they differ from one another. It turns out that increases in solar activity produce warming throughout the atmosphere, while carbon dioxide increases cooling in the upper atmosphere and warms the surface. Variations in ocean circulation distribute heat, while changes in the sun or in greenhouse gases change the total heat amount in the system. Air pollution, volcanoes and irrigation all cool the climate, while rising greenhouse gases warm it. Ozone depletion has increased the speed of the winds around Antarctica, affecting ocean circulation and sea ice.
But even taking into account uncertainties in the amount of air pollution in the 19th century or in estimating global temperatures through time, scientists have concluded that the current warmth is impossible to explain without human contributions. It is on a par with the likelihood that a DNA match at a crime scene is purely coincidental. Moreover, when we include the multiplicity of human effects, we match them with the observed trends at the surface, in the Arctic, in the ocean and aloft. The dominant factor that emerges is the rise in greenhouse gases, which we know comes mainly from the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.
Even more convincingly, these trends aren’t just being attributed in hindsight. The rate of surface warming was predicted in the 1980s, the cooling in the upper atmosphere was forecast in a 1967 scientific paper, and specific measurements from space indicate that the total greenhouse effect has been enhanced exactly as theory would predict.

When this is all put together, the conclusions are inescapable: Without human activities the planet would not have warmed over the past century. When scientists include all of the effects that humans have had on the climate system, they can match them with these many independent and varied observations. Our best assessment is therefore that humans, at least the ones responsible for the bulk of carbon dioxide emissions, have been responsible for all of the recent trends in global temperatures.
The forensics have spoken, and we are to blame.
Gavin Schmidt is a climate scientist and director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.

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आडूबान,1,जानवरों की अभिव्यक्ति,1,जीवन और जंग,1,जीवन की उत्‍पत्ति,1,जैव विविधता वर्ष,1,जैव शवदाह,1,ज्योतिष,1,ज्योतिष और अंधविश्वास,2,झारखण्‍ड,1,टिंडल प्रभाव,1,टीलोमियर,1,टीवी और स्‍वास्‍थ्‍य,1,टीवी के दुष्‍प्रभाव,1,टेक्‍नालॉजी,1,टॉप 10 ब्लॉगर,1,डा0 अब्राहम टी कोवूर,1,डा0 ए0 पी0 जे0 अब्दुल कलाम,1,डाइनामाइट,1,डाटा सेंटर,1,डिस्कस,1,डी•एन•ए• की खोज,3,डीप किसिंग,1,डॉ मनोज पटैरिया,1,डॉ. के.एन. पांडेय,1,डॉ० मिश्र,1,ड्रग एडिक्‍ट,1,ड्रग्स,1,ड्रग्‍स की लत,1,तम्बाकू,1,तम्‍बाकू के दुष्‍प्रभाव,1,तम्बाकू निषेध,1,तर्कशास्त्र,1,ताँत्रिक क्रियाएँ,1,थर्मोइलेक्ट्रिक जेनरेटर,1,थ्री ईडियट्स के फार्मूले,1,दर्दनाशी,1,दर्शन,1,दर्शन लाल बवेजा,3,दिल की बीमारी,1,दिव्‍य शक्ति,1,दुरबीन,1,दूरानुभूति,1,दोहरे मानदण्ड,1,धरोहर,1,धर्म,2,धातु विज्ञान,1,धार्मिक पाखण्ड,1,धुम्रपान और याद्दाश्‍त,1,धुम्रपान के दुष्‍प्रभाव,1,धूल-मिट्टी,1,नई खोजें,1,नन्हे आविष्कार,1,नमक,1,नवाचारी भौतिकी,1,नशीली दवाएं,1,नाइट शिफ्ट के दुष्‍प्रभाव,1,नारायणमूर्ति,1,नारी-मुक्ति,1,नींद और बीमारियां,1,नींद न आने के कारण,1,नेत्रदान और 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पम्प,1,ब्रह्मण्‍ड,1,ब्रह्मा,1,ब्रह्माण्‍ड,1,ब्रह्माण्‍ड के रहस्‍य,1,ब्रह्मान्ड,1,ब्रेन म्‍यूजिक,1,ब्लॉग लेखन,1,ब्लॉग लेखन के द्वारा विज्ञान संचार,2,ब्लॉगिंग का महत्व,1,भारतीय आयुर्विज्ञान अनुसंधान परिषद,1,भारतीय विज्ञान कथा लेखक समिति,1,भारतीय वैज्ञानिक,2,भारतीय शोध,1,भूकंप के झटके,1,भूकम्‍प,1,भूगर्भिक हलचलें,1,मंगल,1,मधुमेह और खानपान,1,मनजीत सिंह बोपाराय,1,मनीष मोहन गोरे,1,मनीष वैद्य,1,मनु स्मृति,1,मनोरंजक गणित,1,महिला दिवस,1,माचू-पिचू,1,मानव शरीर,1,माया,1,मारिजुआना,1,मासिक धर्म,1,मिल्‍की वे,1,मिशन स्टारडस्ट-नेक्स,1,मीठी गपशप,1,मीमांसा,1,मुख कैंसर,1,मृत सागर,1,मेघ राज मित्र,1,मेडिकल रिसर्च,1,मेरी शैली,1,मैथेमेटिक्स ओलम्पियाड,1,मैरी क्‍यूरी,2,मैरीन इनोवेटिव टेक्नोलॉजीज लि,1,मोटापा,1,मोबाईल के नुकसान,1,मौसम,1,यजुर्वेद,1,युवा अनुसंधानकर्ता पुरष्कार,1,यूरी गागरिन,1,योगेन्द्र पाल,1,योगेश,1,योगेश रे,1,रक्षा उपकरण,1,राईबोसोम,1,रूप गठन,1,रेडियो टोमोग्राफिक इमेजिंग,1,रैबीज,1,रोचक रोमांचक अंटार्कटिका,4,रोबोटिक्स,1,लखनऊ,1,लादेन,1,लालन-पालन,1,लिनक्स,1,लिपरेशी,1,लीप इयर,1,लेड,1,लॉ ऑफ ग्रेविटी,1,लोक विज्ञान,1,लौह स्तम्भ,1,वजन घटाने का आसान तरीका,1,वाई गुणसूत्र,1,वायु प्रदुषण,1,वाशो,1,विज्ञान,1,विज्ञान कथा,3,विज्ञान कथा सम्मेलन,1,विज्ञान के खेल,2,विज्ञान चुटकले,1,विज्ञान तथा प्रौद्यौगिकी,1,विज्ञान प्रगति,1,विज्ञान ब्लॉग,1,विज्ञापन,1,विटामिनों के वहम,1,विद्युत,1,विवेकानंद,1,विवेचना-व्याख्या,1,विश्व नि-तम्बाकू दिवस,1,विश्व पर्यावरण दिवस,1,विश्व भूगर्भ जल दिवस,1,विष्णु,1,वीडियो,1,वीडियो बुक,1,वैज्ञानिक दृष्टिकोण,1,वैद्य अश्विनी कुमार,1,वोस्तोक,1,व्‍यायाम के लाभ,1,व्हेलॉसिटी,1,शिव,1,शुक्र पारगमन,1,शुगर के दुष्‍प्रभाव,1,शून्य,1,शोध परिणाम,1,शोधन,1,श्रृष्टि का अंत,1,सं. राष्ट्रसंघ,1,सकारात्‍मक सोच का जादू,1,संक्रमण,1,संख्या,1,संजय ग्रोवर,1,संज्ञात्मक पक्षी विज्ञान,1,सटीक व्‍यायाम,1,संत बलबीर सिंह सीचेवाल,1,सत्यजित रे,1,समय की बरबादी को रोचकने के उपाय,1,समाज और हम,1,समुद्र,1,संयोग,1,सर चन्द्रशेखर वेंकट रमन राष्ट्रीय विज्ञान दिवस,1,सर्प संसार,1,साइकोलोजिस्ट,1,साइनस उपचार,1,साइंस ब्लागर्स मीट,1,साइंस ब्लागर्स मीट.,2,साइंस ब्लॉग कार्यशाला,2,साइंस ब्लॉगर्स असोसिएशन अवार्ड,1,साइंस ब्लॉगर्स असोसिएशन रजिस्ट्रेशन,1,साइंस ब्लॉगर्स ऑफ दि ईयर अवार्ड,1,साइंस ब्लोगिंग,1,साईकिल,1,सामवेद,1,सामाजिक अभिशाप,1,सामाजिक चेतना,1,साहित्यिक चोरी,2,सिगरेट छोड़ें,1,सी. एस. आई. आर.,1,सी.वी.रमण विज्ञान क्लब,1,सीजेरियन ऑपरेशन,1,सुपर अर्थ,1,सुपर कम्प्यूटर,1,सुरक्षित ब्लॉगिंग,1,सूर्यग्रहण,2,सृष्टि व जीवन,3,सेक्स रेशियो,1,सेहत की देखभाल,1,सोशल नेटवर्किंग,1,स्टीफेन हाकिंग,1,स्पेन,1,स्मृति,1,स्वर्ण अनुपात,1,स्वाईन-फ्लू,1,स्वास्थ्य,2,स्‍वास्‍थ्‍य और खानपान,1,स्वास्थ्य चेतना,3,हमारे वैज्ञानिक,4,हरित क्रांति,1,हंसी के फायदे,1,हाथरस कार्यशाला,1,हिंद महासागर,1,हृदय रोग,1,होलिका दहन,1,ह्यूमन रोबोट,1,
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Science Bloggers' Association of India: How Scientists Cracked the Climate Change Case(NYT)
How Scientists Cracked the Climate Change Case(NYT)
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2018/10/24/opinion/24schmidt/24schmidt-articleLarge.gif?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale
Science Bloggers' Association of India
https://blog.scientificworld.in/2018/10/how-scientists-cracked-climate-change_29.html
https://blog.scientificworld.in/
https://blog.scientificworld.in/
https://blog.scientificworld.in/2018/10/how-scientists-cracked-climate-change_29.html
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